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| The UK housing market: a bubble about to burst? |
Hoogstraten
by Mr Britain
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#1001332
of 3278
 04 Dec 2002
08:55 PM |
I Hate paying Taxes especially to the UK government who seem to keep putting my Taxes up and then cutting services that are important to me such as Health, Schools, Roads. Belgium has much higher direct Taxes than the UK but by the time you take into account that Food, Petrol and especially Fags-Booze are cheaper then I would argue that it works out about the same percentage as in the UK
Having 10% stamp duty in Belgium means that property is not traded like shares so if you looked you would notice a few bargains to be had and the locals nearly all speak English.
Seems to me that most of the people who live in Europe realize that we are in a recession and have become bears and as usual this make things worse but in the UK Joe public is having a party and running up debt based on the so called equity they have in there property but sooner or later this will need to be paid off and I recon the UK will have such a hangover that it will fail harder than the rest of Europe. (Maybe Tony wants this so we can enter the Euro)
Germany seems to still be having trouble from reunification but in the long run they do have some manufacturing (Bet you have a bema or Merc) and yes many jobs are being lost as companies relocate to Poland but the germans will pull back. (Don’t take this as I like em) What has the UK Got. Robin Reliant. Opps that’s gone. Manufacturing that all gone to India. Banking well it won’t have much if we join the Euro. The standard of living in most of Europe has risen against the UK and we no longer rule the waves. By the way I don’t think I want the UK to join the euro.
For the record so please quote me on this I believe that UK property prices will drop on average 40% from today’s prices and that this will happen during the next 12 months. |
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the moment of truth
by zorro
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#1001331
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
08:55 PM |
Well Hoogstraten
I was about to go to the fully-deserved bed when I happened upon the post you sent 10 min before my reply to Mr Britain. Although nobody asked me for my life story, I will venture to admit that I did NOT study economics (English, M.A., actually, so watch out with those misapplied quotes, Jack Straw...) so be gentle with me on the finer points of theory, Hoogstraten (although I did teach it, the charlatain that I am).
What we have in common is that I also don't want to work again (well, correction - I don't want to work other than deal with property whether doing it up or letting - but I object, as I have pointed out before, to it being seen as 'unearned income' by the I.R. - I work pretty damn hard at it, so there.)
What we don't have in common is that I don't see the poor just as a minor irritation on my doorstep (although there is that). It is not that essentially I am setting myself up as a nicer human being than you (let's just keep it in the realm of economics) but rather that it is - paradoxically - possible for altruism to be self-interested, as you profess to be, and so am I.
How come? Think of the white farmers in South Africa. Think of me, for that matter, with my humble property empire (nothing much compared to that of the Dark Lord's, I am sure) all in the SW of London, where we seem to find guys shot through the head on our doorsteps every second day. What do you think it does for the property prices?
Now, if the shooters and the shootees had some other socially respectable ways of making a good income (neo-marxism with a human face, arright?!), and - money not being everyting, in spite of the preoccupations of this forum - if they had some other ways of gaining 'RESPEC'' maybe, just maybe, things might work out better. Now, that is called social engineering. It coud also be called socialism.
But yes, I am afraid, that I am a Marxist to the extent that I do fear that all our manufacturing jobs will ultimately go east. I call it the ying-yang theory of historical economics (we have been the top dog long enough, let the East have the 21 and subsequent centuries, fai
enough, let the pendulum swing. What gives us the God-given right to deserve all the icing of the cake?)
And no, I don't think it is morally wrong to put fiscal pressure on your property empire. You will suffer, but so will I. And if I could only believe that social order could be maintained at such price, then it is money well spent, and we should not complain. Because, apart from altruistic motives, we stand to gain more from maintaining the social order that we might lose from shor-sightedly insisting on our personal jam today. As you can see, I am also intuitive in my musings, just like the Dark Lord, alghough I am not a betting man like he is.
However, if the game is shifting East: although this is bad for the UK - since you don't seem to be either as patriotic (or pessimistic) as Mr Britain, why not shift your capital east? Long live short termism, if you pardon the paradox. Let's just asset-strip the planet and board the next comet out, like the weirdos in California did with the Haley-Bop, eh? As you can tell, I am darkly ironic, of course.
Anyhow, are you based in London, Hoogstraten? Because if you are, full of human kindness as I am, I would be quite happy to buy you a pre-Christmas drink. (It's OK, you don't need to delete this post on the grounds of decency, monitor, I am guaranteed 100% heterosexual and harmless, just ask my partner). For that matter, if the monitor, Mr Britain, and even the verbose Jack Straw want to join in, it might be jolly. Anyone feel free to email me at www.intermax.co.uk for arrangements. |
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Who's who
by JoJo
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#1001330
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
08:38 PM |
It does not matter. Get back to something serious will you, and without all the showing off and the split personas.
Please regard this a personal attack on anybody you think it fits. |
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Easing the intellectual load
by Hoogstraten
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#1001329
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
08:37 PM |
Zorro. Let me ease the intellectual load for you.
I said below in posting #1001326 of 1265:
“Jack Straw … (hears voices that his name is also Martin Wolf).”
Do you suppose that Jack Straw (who is still not me) could also on occasions call himself Martin Wolf? |
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Very sorry Zorro
by Mr Britain
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#1001328
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
08:21 PM |
Sorry Zorro but your posting #1001309 04 Dec 12.34 was addressed to Hoogstraten and I miss read the header and thought it was produced by Hoogstraten. Sorry again.
If you read my past postings you will notice that many years ago I worked as an electrician but got tired of working for a living so went to university for a year and then became an IT Consultant on much more money. IT is going tits up so maybe one day I can help you out and nip over to London and fix that spare socket.
I’m getting very confused about all these names right now. The editor says in #1001321 that Hoogstraten and Martin Wolf have the same IP Address but then in #1001324 Hoogstraten defends himself as not being Jack Straw. I Just don’t know who this guy is. |
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Cloak and dagger - to the confused Mr Britain
by zorro
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#1001327
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
07:56 PM |
Dear Mr Britain
For the third time now you have confused me with Hoogstraten, my estimable opponent. This forum is about ideas and not personalities, and now that Hoogstraten has revealed his softunderbelly of genuine thoughtfulness, I am certainly not offended to be mistaken for him, merely bemused.
This forum is about issues and ideas and not personalities anyhow, so it does not matter who I am, but for the record: it was me, zorro, and not Hoogstraten, who mentioned deflation in Japan, which you tackled in your recent post (and incidentally, we were not in disagreement - re-read the posts); it was also me who brought in 'Marxist theory', 'empirical experience' thereof, and the 'double digit' property price increases on the Continent.
I read your posts with interest, Mr Britain, as, on own admission, you seem to be an electrician, and as a Marxist (albeit somewhat post-modern) I respect a working man, 'salt of the earh', eh? I just don't understand why your mates in the trade (or ex-mates - if I read you correctly) had to take a cut in the rates they are charging. Are they based in Germany perchance? All I know that I would offer a king's ransom for a decent electrician in London right now.
Anyway, don't get your knickers in the twist about IPs, keep your mind on the issue in hand so to speak, ie - the property market in this green and pleasant land of ours.
Hoogstraten - I will respond later. I need to think and I am somewhat intellectually impaired by alcohol at the moment. Anyhow, I thank you for a full and thoughtful response. |
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Life Story?
by Hoogstraten
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#1001326
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
07:46 PM |
Mr Britain,
I am actually an immigrant farmer with aids, and I work part-time as a bank teller for the Halifax. I was shocked by your earlier comments that discriminated on me on four separate accounts.
I can see you are insistent I give you my life story – very well. My arguments will remain the same. No, I am not a student – I haven’t been to University for over 10 years (I have forgotten a lot of the stuff I learnt – especially the Austrian economists and Marx). I did study Economics (Hons), & later worked as a Chartered Accountant at one of the (now) big four firms. After that I was an investment banker for about 7 years.
I have now reached retirement age (I am over 30) so I eke out a modest living as a petty bourgeois landlord. I hope to never work again – the idea of it seems quite demeaning, like tenanting... Jack Straw is in a similar situation to myself (he hears voices that his name is also Martin Wolf). He is also a retired investment banker, and is also a petty bourgeois landlord. He has no formal economics training – he studied IT at University. His views are similar to mine (he is more bullish about property prices than I am though), and so Jack Straws views are more intuitive than based on pure economic theory. He gave the investment banking game away earlier than I did – more sense than myself I believe. If you choose not to believe any of this, so be it.
Finally, to complete the conflicts of interest, I could mention that I know the Dark Lord (he is also an investment banker with extensive property). I would say that if anyone takes a £100k bet with him, and he loses, I am higher up the debtor list. A couple of months ago I won a bet against him (for a meagre £100-) but have yet to see the colour of his money. He is a property bear unlike Straw/Myself...Enough!
You say that in Belgium (and it is also the case in Germany) taxes are high, and this is you believe a good thing. The European economies are all dogs and are doomed – industry will steadily leave Germany for cheaper work forces in the East. This is the sort of economic policy Britain does not need. |
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Hoogstraten IP Address
by Mr Britain
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#1001325
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
06:37 PM |
Yes Martin Wolf may have the same IP Address as you in the case of you both being behind the same firewall so I would bet you are both within the same corporation or university and there is a strong possibility that you are in the same building but was I to put money on the matter I would guess you are one and the same person unless you can enlighten us more. I Mention university because as a guess with all this capitalist society, Marxist theory, empirical experience. stuff I would go double or quits that you are in fact a student doing some kind of economics’ degree.
Yes in Belgium stamp duty is 10% and not only that you pay up to 35% Tax on any capital gains that you make on the property so your right when you say “put a lid on double digit increases” and that’s why I got a real bargain compared to UK Prices.
Today on CNN it said that the German high street sales had not been as bad as it is today since the end of the second world war. Don’t exspect them to lead us out of the recession any time soon. |
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There is only one Hoogstraten
by Hoogstraten
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#1001324
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
06:04 PM |
I have always used one name - Hoogstraten. The fact that more than one person can use the same IP address is something you have not factored into your tirade. Jack Straw still remains a different person…
Zorro, you say:
“You muse on what Hayek might have said …”
This is what he advocated – where do you disagree? Another contributor introduced Hayek – I was simply replying.
“In a totally laisser-faire market full employment is not possible.”
For the record I think Milton Friedman’s natural rate of unemployment theory is more applicable in the real world.
“I need to come out of the closet, declare myself a Marxist and put to you the following…the laws of (unregulated) supply and demand would soon ensure that those who control the means of production would sack a goodly number of workers to ensure that the rest would meekly work for whatever pittance they were getting.”
You confuse Marx with Malthus.
Malthus believed that poverty of the worker was predetermined under any system – population growth was faster than food supply growth in the Malthusian world.
Marx’s views are based on classical economic assumptions – in particular David Ricardo and Adam Smith. What Ricardo regarded as an anomaly, Marx believed was the essence of economic theory.
Marx believed “A rise in the price of labour, as a consequence of accumulation of capital, only means, in fact, that the length and weight of the golden chain the wage-worker has already forged for himself, allow of a relaxation of the tension of it.”
In other words, workers could get more in a capitalist system – but the capitalist will always take a relatively higher share of the increase in total value, and in his view this “expropriation” was wrong. Marx believed that the worker should get all the value, so the capitalist needed to be eliminated. Capitalists see their share as being justified, because it is the return for efficiently allocating resources and taking risks. Whether this return is justified is partly a value judgement – but the fact of the matter is that the Capitalist system provides the worker with a better standard of living than that of Communist countries.
Labour under Marx is a commodity, like any other. The capitalist in the Marxist view of the world will try to minimise these costs, so they can take a higher share of the total value in profit. This is why manufacturing will inevitably move to third world countries. This is why even investment banks are trying to outsource IT to India. In essence, I agree with Marx’s critique of capitalism, but I certainly do not share his prescriptions for “correcting” it. There is no correction needed.
In fact, for the very reason Marx would condemn capitalism, I would celebrate capitalism. Firstly, when Marxism removes the capitalist and private property, and gives the job of allocating resources to bureaucrats, it makes the lot of ordinary workers much. Secondly, Marxist theory shows that under the Capitalist system, it is advantageous to be a Capitalist.
“100% employment is only possible in communism.”
Probably true – but self-interest is king. The lot of poor people is irritating when they are in your face on the street, but otherwise is of little consequence.
“I have the empirical experience to say that I prefer that model, even though under that model I would have not enriched myself by property speculation as I have done. I am not hypocritical, merely pragmatic.”
The common worker is wealthier in a capitalist society, because there is more efficient resource allocation when market incentives are used. Frankly, I am self-interested, so the lot of the worker is of little interest to me in any case. Communism involves the replacement of an incentive driven capitalist allocating their resources with a bureaucrat, with worse results for everybody.
“Anyway, why bring a dead, discredited, irrelevant Austrian into a pre-deflationary global outlook, where Keynes's views are far more in tune?”
I never brought the Austrian strongman into the discussion – someone else did. Keynes is longer dead, by the way. The Government is operating an expansionary fiscal policy and the BOE an expansionary monetary policy, in accordance with Keynesian policy. I do not agree with the Governments expansionary fiscal policy, but this is not really the issue at hand.
“But the bottom line is that the property market is just another service, and unless measures are put in place to revive our manufacture, we will be stuffed.”
Marxist theory shows manufacturing production is inevitably going to die in Britain. The key is to hold the capital – where the production takes place is of little consequence. The fact that Nike factories are in Asia means that Nike stockholders make a much better return on their capital than they would if there plants were in the US. Capital is king.
“if people had to pay 10-15% on average on every property transaction, as they do on the Continent, this would soon put a lid on double digit increases.”
It would stop property price increases, but it would also make everyone in the country worse off. Bureaucrats are inefficient at resource allocation, and redistribution (theft) of my capital is also morally wrong. |
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dear ft administrators
by david
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#1001323
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
05:53 PM |
very interesting about people posting under different names-can you reveal any other cases of this if any?
david |
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Dear ScheherazadeDaneshkhu
by Mr Britain
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#1001322
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
03:16 PM |
I think your brothers in army’s are more than able to defend them selves and will given plenty of time
So Aids won’t cost much money you think. Look at the trends. Cost about £400 a month in prescription charges. Guess you see the numbers going down. AIDS will cost a lot more money and in one way of another both you and I will end up picking up the bill hence reducing our ability to fuel property booms.
Are you sure that “absenteeism, due to extended drinking hours” Will cost the economy more that Aids since much revenue is raised from duty on a pint of beer.
Looks like you got it wrong again “sparkie in Belgium” and lets say I was a sparkie in Belgium then have you not come across the term night shift.
MIRAS was one of the triggers that started the last property boom and proves that simple triggers may bring about a down turn. Maybe it’s better if I waffle on about Cars and Petrol caps so that my contribution is as good as yours. |
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forum gaminess
by ftmonitor
FT Administrator  |
#1001321
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
02:40 PM |
To point out to other readers what is obvious to us, Martin Wolf has not been contributing to this discussion. Posts in his name have come from the same IP address that "Hoogstraten" posts from.
Please, again, in order to maintain credibility, choose a name and use it consistently. |
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reposting message
by Jack Straw
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#1001320
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
02:33 PM |
The reason this message was reposted, with slight adjustments, is simple. When you take the time to analyse the current market situation ,and provide backing to your points, it needs to be answered in a responsible mature manner. Further any response needs to have due diligence to its approach. The only response so far appears to be you ranting about AIDS and MIRAS.
I was hoping to provoke a response from the more responsible, mature, informed reader. I have to go I'm on Govt business. |
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On behalf of MW On behalf of Jack Straw
by ScheherazadeDaneshkhu
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#1001319
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
02:22 PM |
Mr Britain,
FYI
“Again I ask you again Martin to remind me and other members of the forum of these “investments recommended by Mr Britain.” Maybe you would tell us what page these comments are on.”
I feel your jingoistic theories are better from the horse’s mouth. Why don’t you enlighten us all, I’m always keen to promote productive contribution?
”I said that AIDS Will cost the UK a lot of money. Do you disagree with that?”
Not really, your theory here is alarmist and has little to do with the question, as to whether we are facing a property slump. Are you suggesting that AIDS is a factor that will destroy the British economy? The answer is clearly no, if it could it would have already happened. What is the basis of this theory? I can guarantee you that the British economy will face a greater cost, through absenteeism, due to extended drinking hours than it will AIDS.
Secondly, if you think it’ll cost a lot of money you should have seen the wards in hospitals in the 80’s. At that time they weren’t sure if there was an air borne potential. “Secure” units were incredibly expensive and I remember the burning of Rock Hudson’s house, well I guess those policies would be expensive to the property market.
”Hope you did your home work last night and worked out how MIRAS contributed to the last property boom”
A car has many parts that drive it forward. To credit the whole theory of forward momentum to one part of the car, say the petrol cap, is I might say shortsighted. Unless you are suggesting the whole boom was MIRAS related? If so what does it have to do with the current boom?
I fail to see that you understand the word contribution? Secondly, if you truly are a sparkie in Belgium how do you get so much time to post these ridiculous messages? |
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Japan and property
by Mr Britain
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#1001318
of 3278
04 Dec 2002
02:18 PM |
Hoogstraten you said
“EU rate, which is supposed to be going down by another 0.5% this week, and I won't even remind you how far out of step we are with Japan”
Yes please remind us about Japan with zero percent interest rates.
H. SENG is down -2.27% as I look today and they have been struggling for the past ten years. Dare I mention the ‘D’ Word or should we drop the subject.
People should sign on the dole as soon as they losse there job because it's a signal to the goverment and means less money for these silly Left Wing projects |
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