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| The UK housing market: a bubble about to burst? |
KiP
by The Dark Lord
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#1001253
of 3278
 03 Dec 2002
12:48 PM |
Again, you can think whatever you like ... the facts speak for themselves :
1) You made a claim. I disagree with it, and offered you the chance to profit from it, you declined - indicating you do not believe your assertions as strongly as you suggest.
Would you like to bet £10,000 ? £5,000 ? £1,000 ? a happy meal ?
I suspect not, because fundamentally, you do not believe your own claims.
2) You make a counter offer, I accepted, you are now attempting to back out, and worse, change your original claim!. Again, you do not apparently believe your own hype.
Rob G is of a similar ilk, unwilling to back up his beliefs - I am prepared to back up mine, why aren't you ?
How can you conceivably have any credibility whatsoever ?
Your only justication is that "others agree with you". This is the mentality of a sheep, and simply because other people wish to delude themselves, it does not make them right. Maybe there is comfort in being part of a herd. The world is full of opinions, its a shame its not filled with a bit more action.
I can only feel embarassed for you.
*Bubbles* |
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The Dark Lord
by Knowledge is Power
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#1001252
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
12:32 PM |
I wouldn't be suprized if on paper your illiquid assests do amount to £1,000,000. However I'd be interested in seeing you release it in the current market though! Thus I still doubt that you have a capital sum amounting to $1m sitting in an account/shares.
Dark Lord:
I'd rather cut my own head off than dine with you, so I'll have to decline your invitation on that one!
And no, I don't have 100k to bet with, sorry! I do fail to see however that because I can't afford the bet it makes my convictions weakened in the process. This is strange logic shows to me just how obsessed with money you really are.
I feel very, very sorry for you. It must be a lonely life.
Rob G, Gary, excellent posts. I'm glad I'm not the only one who's got cloudy vision! |
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Prices (again)
by The Dark Lord
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#1001251
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
12:22 PM |
Rob G :
As you are so fond of categorising me into the "property prices are rising" camp, I should yet again reiterate that I believe property prices are going to fall (and already are).
Property prices might be growing by 25%+ a year, but as we all know, not in London ... London has been stagnant for the better part of a year from what I have seen.
I do not however agree with the ridiculous assertions that prices will fall to the point where risk adjusted yields will be 6% over base rates.
Time for some of you to pick up an economics textbook, and start to think about investment flows and returns.
*Bubbles* |
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Betting
by Monitor_JDW
FT Administrator  |
#1001250
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
12:19 PM |
| Please take any further discussion of betting to e-mail. This forum is not a casino. |
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KiP
by The Dark Lord
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#1001249
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
12:13 PM |
Knowledge is Power :
I can only assume from your reply that you do not have believe your own claims ... I find your lack of faith disturbing ... and tragically predictable.
I do not honestly believe anything I can say would prove anything, you will simply accuse me of lying, what therefore is the point ?
Would you like to meet ? I can prove it to you then, and will happily take your £10 ... although I would prefer a different wager, shall we say dinner ? winner chooses the restaurant ? ... surely if your partner is a solicitor, she can afford that even if you can't - bring her as well, she may as well get a nice meal for her money.
*Bubbles* |
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Housing bubble
by Gary
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#1001248
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
12:12 PM |
confidence and perception is the key to this market. valuations are unrealistic at the moment, especially in London and the South-East. many people must now be tempted to hold back on property purchases and they are right. I agree that we are not about to see a 89-92 shock to the market but affordability levels should act as strong brake to price progress. The UK's weathering of the current global economic situation has been largely because of consumers releasing equity and spending. this is about to slow down. I only hope that the US recovery will strengthen and take up the slack. Europe is in no position to help. if the US stalls we might start to see unemployment rise and then the market will turn very quickly. Figures for those with 80% and higher mortgages would make an illuminating statistic to try and judge the fallout.
I think in the future borrowing should be much more tightly restricted to avoid futures rapid greed bubbles. |
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It is just me?
by Rob G
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#1001247
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
12:07 PM |
Is it just me, or has anyone else here noticed how the predictions for the economy are getting gradually but noticeably worse as the months go on?
Of course in the face of this, the housing market still grows at record levels.
Hoogstraten, Dark Lord, Jack et al - don't you just get the feeling that this is just a big rubber band being stretched and stretched?
So when it finally snaps, who's going to get hit in the ***? |
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Dark Lord
by Knowledge is Power
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#1001246
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
11:55 AM |
You cannot realistically expect me to make a bet with you to the tune of £100k!
IF I had 100k, I would be putting it to far better use than you are suggesting.
How about this for a bet:
I bet you £10 (10 pounds GBR)that you are not a millionaire.
My partner is a solicitor - I can have it lodged with her in 15mins. If you can prove to this forum that you are that loaded you can make a £100k bet, then the crisp £10 note is yours?
Are you prepaired to accept the challenge? |
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KiP
by The Dark Lord
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#1001245
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
11:48 AM |
Knowledge is Power :
Does it matter where I think we are now ?
Any bet has to have a way for both people to win ... if you'd prefer a different expiry period let me know.
You can think it's as comical as you want, your opinion is irrelevant ... I don't consider the bet reckless at all, its only £100k and it is my money ... I assure you I can afford it, and I am happy to lodge it with a solicitor subject to you doing the same.
Spare me the needless postering ... assuming you believe your own hype, its easy money for you ... are you taking the bet or not ?
*Bubbles* |
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To: The Dark Lord
by Knowledge is Power
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#1001244
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
11:37 AM |
"we should be on an upswing by then"
So where are we know may I ask? Please tell me that you disagree with all of the available DATA, and the strong warnings from the BoE that HP have boomed, and we're is the post "upswing" phase.
I'm sorry, I thought that half the London boroughs were reporting a downturn. Clearly you are more informed of the London market than me.
You are comical Dark Lord, 100k what a pious and portentous bluff. If you were truly the almighty rich, I doubt you’d be so reckless with your cash. |
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KiP
by The Dark Lord
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#1001243
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
11:26 AM |
Knowledge is Power :
I bet you £100,000 that avg greater london price does not fall >25% from the Jan 2000 avg price based on the avg of the halifax/nationwide surveys at anytime in the next 5 years (we should be on an upswing by then, and I'd like to collect my winnings).
*Bubbles* |
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The truth is out there
by Mr Britain
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#1001242
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
11:20 AM |
Hoogstraten says “Hayeks views? He is correct - his thesis is that recessions are often caused by prior inflations. What prior inflationary period are you pointing to” Maybe the member was talking about house price inflation so in affect you have answered your own question.
Hoogstraten says “I think they would correctly point out that there are a number of monetary and fiscal policies they could introduce to mitigate your Great Depression doomsday scenario.” Are we talking about he same fiscal policies being adopted by Japan
Hoogstraten says “even a child would know that property investment is not without risk.” So why do you continue to argue that after hyper inflation in house prices, a crash would not possible.
It’s a great shame that the UK Government continues to exclude anything from the inflation figures that happened to have gone up. Why is it not calculated on take home pay – stealth tax – cost of living because at the end of the day this decides just what money I have in my pocket to spend.
Fire men want a 40% rise. Sounds OK to me because property prices have risen more than 40% above their pay over the last 5 years. Fifteen years ago working as an electrician I was on £8.00 an hour. Some 15 years later my colleagues in the profession are on about £11.00 per hour. That’s bad but it’s not the end of the story. 15 years ago many electricians were self employed so in effect they paid less TAX. Now days most have been forced onto the books because the government clamped down on 715 tax certificates.
The government decided two years ago that IT professionals were on too much money so introduced IR35 meaning that that average IT Contractor was faced with 40% income tax + 11% Employers tax + 11% National Insurance. So in affect after personal income tax allowances the average IT Contractor is taxed at about 55%. You can call National Insurance what you like but I see it as just another tax.
Cambridge (Silicon Fen) has had better than average house price inflation during the last few years on the back of IT. Do you not think that areas in Cambridge such as the new green field site Cambourne are not going to be affected by these circumstances.
So we trust what we are told. Apparently the average FTB is now aged 34. Last year fewer new houses were built than 77 years ago. Joe public has never had it so good. We can all retire on that vast fortunes amassed in our properties. Well that’s just as well because pension company’s are going bust or reducing pay outs. |
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No I'm not mad
by Knowledge is Power
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#1001241
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
11:11 AM |
As the Nation wide data demostrates, when the market falls, (there are three examples to look at here: 1974, 1980, 1980), the market falls BELOW FAIR VALUE (or long term trend), before regaining the losses.
Why is a 25% fall on 2000 prices so difficult to contemplate. 2000 is fair value, but the three previous busts have fallen below fair value.
That is why I'm saying 25% on 2000 prices!
So assuming there is a bust (to argue the point), you're saying that the prices will only drop to fair value and ignore the trend that is so obvious to see in the data?
No I'm not mad, I'm looking at the evidence here, and making a prediction based on prior events. But sorry that's the scientist coming out in me. < mental note: think like a sweaty 19year old estate agent in future>
GROW UP ANDY B! |
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house prices
by guy
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#1001240
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
11:10 AM |
| UK House prices may steady up in the short term. However the world is a big place & the value for money houses outside the UK may in the longer term destroy the demand & values of UK homes. Maybe a Level Pound for Euro entry is on the cards. |
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KIP are you mad ?
by Andy B
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#1001239
of 3278
03 Dec 2002
10:28 AM |
Answer - see last posting.
KIP I find it incredible that you are now sugesting a 25% fall compared to 2000?
I also feel that given the link below:
FT.com - Nationwide house price report
- all those that have been arguing a 50% fall in this forum should note that the prices have risen during the time of this debate by c20% so we now have to see a 58% fall for you to be right. And for those betting on 70% you now have to see a 75% fall.
But I suspect you all have decided the only way you will be proved right (in the market place) is to keep debating until one day there is a fall in prices.
I do not fully believe some of the present rises but I DO believe prices say at 2000 levels reflect the economic factors at work in our economy. When the Oxford economists talk about over pricing they are talking about the present 20% to 30% this year - NOT a correction back to pre 2000!
I will leave you in your John Nash maddness,
Regards,
Andy B. |
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