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| The UK housing market: a bubble about to burst? |
Give peace a chance
by Hoogstraten the Hero
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#1000600
of 3278
 09 Nov 2002
01:48 AM |
Hoogstraten the Hero has arisen from the dead.
The path of the righteous man is beset at all times by the evil of the property ignoramus- blessed is he who sheppard’s the weak through the valley of real estate.
Tokyo Tom – if you choose the path of Nippon property ahead of Britain, you are choosing the path of false idolatry. For it will kill your brother to possess your brother’s wife. An eternal deflation doom awaits you in Japan.
Fear not the wails of sickly, frail, asthmatic, nine year old girls – false idols who will lead you to the land of tenancy and pain. Claire’s tales of woe on the Knightsbridge rental circuit show that vanity will subsidise the standard of living of the strong. For the righteous will not choose to be the poorest person at the dinner party.
And what of Tim’s foolish pride, which remembers Fulham property but forgets those properties in need in East Anglia? The wise do not discriminate the source of the pound – they take from all with equal grace and dignity. For he who forgets his history is doomed to repeat it.
True Brit – I am impressed by your karma, and spiritually I am enlightened by the fact that both tenanting and being landlord can be a good experience for both parties. Also, I should add, give peace a chance. And save the whales. And don’t discriminate against a chick just because she has fat calves. Frankly, you inspire me to be better person.
Ps. I wear a nightie and roman sandals – what does it all mean???? |
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Not worth investing
by Tokyo tom
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#1000599
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
10:36 PM |
I live in Tokyo. I was intending to purchase a property in London this month, and went back with that intention. Decided it would clearly be a bad move.
why?
1) Even at 4% I could get more interest in the bank than I could get in rental income.
2) It's a tenants' market, and I would be lucky to get a full year's tenancy.
3) Everybody seems to be buying just because borrowing costs are cheap at the moment. That is understandable, but nuts. Either prices will rise till costs are no longer cheap, or interest rates will rise. Either way, it can't go on.
3) The only reason to purchase would be for capital growth. Given the increase in population and a downturn in building, it seems clear that price growth could be large: say 5% p.a. . So I'll wait till it reaches 5%. Meanwhile, the Stock Market is a safer bet at the moment.
4) The only economists predicting a continuation of this 20% or so increase are those who work for estate agents.
5) It is mathematically impossible for growth to go smoothly from 20% to 5%.
So, please, everybody: keep buying: BUY! BUY! LOTS OF HOUSES!!!. Because the more you buy, the more it'll drop. Then I shall return. |
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Definitely
by The Scream
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#1000598
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
08:50 PM |
If the economy stays in the doldrums or gets worse (which is currently the most likely), then there will be job losses and the market will crash. The recent drop in US rates has seen the dollar fall two cents as investors leave the US for better rates. The lower dollar will reduce UK exports as our products look more expensive.
Alternatively, if the economy improves, interest rates will rise and even a 0.25% increase will represent over 6% increase in mortgage interest payments.
Either way, the homeowner should sell at the top (must be about now) and stay out of the market for some time. |
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by sparkey
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#1000597
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
07:55 PM |
A lot of contributions from (I guess) London based renters + owners - obviously not a lot of work to do ;-) Looks like SE employment has still a long way to fall.
Here's something to chew on over the weekend:
1) We can safely assume that that the buy-to-let craze + house price rises have significantly increased the number of rented properties. In fact, I'd go as far to state that the rental market has expanded outside of it's normal market - the young + poor - to the young (+ not so young) professional.
2) The official 'buy-to-let' figures probably understate the actual number of buy-to-let properties by about 1/3 - I think there's a lot people fibbing to their bank/BS - and the bank/BS is turning a blind eye ...
Question:
How will tentants (esp. those who have move to an area for employment) react to unemployment?
My guess:
Most will move - quickly.
There's a large number of places - Bracknell, for instance, - where the only reason to be there is for work. No work - then people will not stay around for the scenery.
Now imagine a couple of big employers in a small geographic area throwing the towel in - RSA, ABB, BA, Marconi, CSFB, Pru Fiat (ok - that's Italy) - you get the general idea?
Some towns are going to empty!
Another question:
Does anyone know if a tentant has been taking to for walking away from a 6 months rental contract? |
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dreadfully sorry
by will
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#1000596
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
07:11 PM |
my dearest tim, with concern to your most animated point towards east anglia - and who would be concerned of its existence.
I an assure you that both Cromwell and Walpole would be concerned. However darling i can safely assume they would not be so concerned about fulham. |
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property fundamentals
by will
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#1000595
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
07:07 PM |
tim ,you are a dear, and your concern must be noted.
i must confirm my view is that any automobile has 5 gears to move in a forward direction and only 1 for a reverse movement. Moving from gear 4 to 3 may be seen in your sector of the populus as a movement backwards. but i can confirm that the overall movement is forward dear. |
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Property Fundamentals!!
by Tim
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#1000594
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
06:56 PM |
Will dear...yes I am biased towards the London market, however even our respected estate agent friends follow the 'last up first down' market rule!
Who cares about East Anglia anyway?? |
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tim nice but dim
by will
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#1000593
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
06:49 PM |
timophy dear, one must judge the market as a whole to guage the final prevailing action. Ones own experiences in Fulham cannot be seen as prevalent in the whole market. Todays figures illustrated, to me, this very fact. The highest rises in todays govt figures occured in east anglia darling.
I presume we must agree to not chase a horse that has yet strayed from the paddock. afterall minority report is but a film. |
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Case in point!!
by Tim
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#1000592
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
06:41 PM |
I bought a 3 bed house in 'the Villes' in Fulham in 1998 for £325,000 and sold in April 2002 for £550,000!! Rented a great 2 bed maisonette with garden etc for £410pw from May 2002 to now (value £400K so int only £1,800pm basically same as rent of £1776pm). Just signed lease for 3 bed house in 'the Villes' for £410pw for occupation 1st Dec 2002!! Int pmts on this house far below mortgage repayments (£2475-£1776=£699pm)
Its all starting to happen! Landlords getting desparate to let their overvalued properties...think I got out at just the right time. Even if values rise by a small % over the next year before the plunge who wants to be so clever as to judge the precipice to the last month! |
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I agree with claire
by T Blair
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#1000591
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
06:26 PM |
The key to this debate is the
private market, both the purchase and rental.
Theres no way this boom will come to an end. The rates of return may reduce - but this is different to a crash. |
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is jack really blair?
by david
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#1000590
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
06:17 PM |
| ? |
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yes its up to you
by david
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#1000589
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
06:16 PM |
yes when you're older you can move further out.
i enjoyed living in west kennsington but just against paying 575pm to my landlord.
When I moved to e15 I got a house with a garden which is excellent for bbqs. And I feel I live in more comfort as I have suddenly started to take pride in my home. I also bring in rent from a friend and another room to furnish which I could possibly rent. i am glad i did.
anyway i apologise to all those who dont want to hear my life story!!
david |
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Start at the bottom
by Clare
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#1000587
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
06:05 PM |
| Surely one of the issues with low inflation is that starting at the bottom and working your way up is mainly a legacy of high inflation? When we have kids yes we will move further out and buy a house with garden and commute but we're not ready for that yet. What is so wrong with living somewhere nice and convenient when we're young enough to enjoy it? |
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ps
by david
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#1000586
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
05:58 PM |
| The east end is not as fanciable as the west end but the best chance of owning a place in that area (which would be very nice) is starting nearer the bottom. |
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Why complain?
by Clare
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#1000585
of 3278
08 Nov 2002
05:57 PM |
| I am actually happy with my current rent and have a good relationship with our landlord so maybe we won't try and negotiate down although given the rental market in our area we could. However, if the market rental rate had risen our landlord would surely seek to increase it, so why does it therefore become outrageous for a tenant to seek to negotiate their rate down? |
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